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The need for change in India's agrarian sector came into sharp focus with the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper traces the imperatives that have shaped the trajectory of the development of the rural economy in post-independence India including the social, cultural and political matrix within which the processes and activities of the rural economy are carried out. It also explores the possibilities of social, cultural and political change based on a perspective that seeks to reconcile the imperatives of unity and social justice with a practical reading of the ground reality in India's villages. The paper suggests reform in social, cultural and political structures and practices at the village level along with economic prescriptions such as increasing the marketability of agricultural produce and creating jobs in the manufacturing sector to absorb workers displaced from the agricultural sector. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023.
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The People's Republic of China has the largest population in the world, making it both one of the most fascinating and rapidly expanding import markets for food and beverages as well as one of the most difficult. The Chinese market is appealing to foreign food producers because of the country's high per capita income and quick urbanization. The Agriculture Chapter addressed fundamental trade barriers and will support a significant increase in the export of food, agricultural, and seafood products from the United States, boosting farm and fishery revenue, stimulating rural economies, and fostering employment growth. Numerous non-tariff barriers to the export of U.S. agricultural and seafood products are discussed, including those relating to rice, dairy, infant formula, horticulture products, animal feed and feed additives, pet food, and agricultural biotechnology products, as well as meat, chicken, and seafood. The U.S. has achieved significant export successes thus far, despite the pandemic. Decrees 248 and 249, which take effect on January 1, 2022, mandate that foreign suppliers of particular food products to China register with the GACC before presenting their goods for customs clearance. Several Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) reports on GACC Decrees 248 and 249 have been published by FAS offices in China. For the most recent information on whether their business has to register, whether it can self-register, or if it needs to be recommended for registration by a U.S. competent body, U.S. exporters should examine the GAIN system, which offers points of contact at the GACC. According to Euromonitor, urban Chinese customers who are short on time choose shopping near residential areas, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. During the crisis, consumers grew accustomed to shopping in their immediate areas. As a result, many major modern grocery chains have used a multi-format strategy and constructed smaller-format stores. Freshippo, Yonghui, and Carrefour are all opening smaller, more neighborhood-focused stores that place an increased emphasis on fresh foods. Some of these shops also act as e-commerce order warehouses and offer prompt home deliveries. Particularly Yonghui has opened Yonghui Mini Stores quickly as an addition to its hypermarket and major supermarket operations. The food processing sector in China has been expanding steadily in recent years. According to the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), sales, production, and income in the sector rose in 2020. The total profits of China's largest food processing firms reached 620.66 billion yuan (about US$97 billion) in 2020, an increase of 6.8% over the same period in 2019. According to MIIT, these businesses' profit growth was 3.1% higher than the average for all industrial sectors.
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[...]the commission will be given much more control than it previously had over EU public health, which traditionally has been overwhelmingly the responsibility of individual member states. covid-19 vaccines Over the thorny issue of supplies of COVID-19 vaccines, which first became available in late 2020, the EC persuaded 27 EU member states in June 2020 to back a €2 billion joint procurement of sufficient doses to meet the needs of the whole of the EU (2). After Pascal Soriot, AstraZeneca's chief executive, claimed in an interview (7) in January 2021 with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica that the EU contract only committed his company to make its "best efforts" to deliver the agreed supplies on time, the EC demanded that in the interests of transparency AstraZeneca publish the text of its APA (8). The text of the contract published on 29 Jan. 2021, with confidential details on prices, costs, and output redacted, confirmed that AstraZeneca had agreed to use its "Best Reasonable Efforts" to manufacture the contracted doses in its manufacturing sites in the EU. The major exception among the neighbouring states is the UK, which had a vaccination rate of 12% in late January against 2.5% in the EU (13)-a gap which made the commission the target of much criticism by irate EU citizens.
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This volume presents a broad sweep of modern economic history underpinning aid, trade, development and globalization in the last half century and the salient challenges facing the global community today. The author draws on his long years as an academic and development practitioner to recommend what needs to be done to cope with the backsliding of the fight against global poverty, fractured geopolitics and the threats to the multilateral economic order. The new, revised edition analyses how unilateralism, rising protectionism and the Covid-19 pandemic seriously threaten global sustainable development. It concludes with recommendations on the policy changes needed to make globalization more equitable and development more sustainable. This book will be of interest to researchers and students of economic development and economic history, as well as all those concerned about global inequality and sustainability. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify the radio frequency identification (RFID) strategic value attributes (RFIDSVAs) mechanism selections preferences and also integration of RFID tags with technology coordination tools (IRTWTCTs) alternatives ranking performance decisions in supply chain management (SCM). RFID-enabled techno-economic feasibility decisions are enhancing the SC visibility in apparel supply chains (ASCs). The RFIDSVAs mechanism selections have performed significant agility to strategic competitive advantages, namely, inventory visibility, multi-tags ownership transfer within trusted third party, etc.Design/methodology/approachFuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) and FAHP-fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) approaches have been used to evaluate the quantitative assessment of RFIDSVA mechanisms selection decision based on weight priority orders and IRTWTCTs alternatives selection in ASC networks. The comparison of FAHP and FAHP-FTOPSIS approaches to evaluate the integrated framework develop in RFIDSVAs mechanisms and IRTWTCTs alternatives selection decisions in Indian multi-tier ASC networks.FindingsThe result found that the FAHP-FTOPSIS approaches have used to prioritizing the RFIDSVA mechanism selection weights and also identify the IRTWTCTs alternatives ranking preferences order in apparel SCM. The comparison between the FAHP and FAHP-FTOPSIS approach to quantitative assessments from RFIDSVA mechanisms and IRTWTCTs alternatives selection decisions, which enable them SC agility potential across multi-tier visibility in ASC networks. ASC stakeholders can be benefited by techno-economic feasibility decisions, RFID-enabled shop floor activities, multi-tags ownerships transfer in SCs and knowledge-based cryptography tags/items separation in SCs.Research limitations/implicationsThe research work has considered only five RFIDSVA mechanisms and also three integration of RFIDTWTCTs alternatives in multi-tier ASC. The strategic competitive advantages are achieved by RFID-enabled break-even tags price decisions and also techno-economic feasibility decision by contractual design multi-tier SC stakeholder's involvements.Practical implicationsThe pilot project study explores that the quantitative assessment decision has based on RFID-enable techno-economic feasibility in ASCs. Stakeholders can be benefited by inventory control of the financial losses, reducing the inventory inaccuracies and multi-tags ownership transfer within trusted third-party traceability in ASC networks.Originality/valueThis study explores the RFID-enabled apparel SC process and activities visibility (natural fibre's fibre producer, fibre dyeing producer, yarn spinning producer, knitting and finishing producer).
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The paper presents the reaction of the Romanian cereal market to the disruption of trade flows caused by certain shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which lead to changes with high impact on the functioning of this market, representing an important test for the resilience of the sector. Due to trade liberalization in global markets, including agri-food markets, the competitiveness of exports has become increasingly important, contributing to the creation of the country's competitive advantage. Any restrictions to trade in agri-food products can distort trade flows, and this disruption will have an impact on supply and prices. Maintaining a balance between imports and exports is essential to ensure domestic market stability. International trade in agri-food products plays an important role in global food security. The results show that Romania mainly exports unprocessed agricultural products, with cereals having the largest share in the export structure, cereal supply is dependent on climate change, yet it is one of the products with the lowest volatility. The cereal market shows a more elastic reaction to price responses, even though demand for staple foods is generally inelastic.
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The objective of the study was to identify the impact of renewable energy on Saudi economy during 2000-2021. Analytical techniques were used to conduct this study. An analysis of the study used a set of variables, in which Renewable energy perceives as independent variable and the dependent variables are GDP per capita, net foreign direct investment, unemployment, fixed capital formation, and net foreign trade. The data of the study were analyzed using the E-views program. According to the study, renewable energy has an impact on certain economic variables and does not have an impact on others. A partial validity is found for the study's central hypothesis. According to our findings, renewable energy contributes significantly to net foreign direct investment, unemployment, and fixed capital formation, but not to GDP per capita, net foreign trade, or fixed capital formation.
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PurposeThis study analyses how latent variables: environmental hostility, entrepreneurial orientation and dynamic capabilities are demonstrated in practice during the COVID-19 pandemic. Coming from mixed-method research, which is an explanatory sequential research design;this paper aims to provide only the qualitative, practical manifestations and validations of the variables previously tested and analysed quantitatively.Design/methodology/approachA case study approach was used whereby open-ended, semi-structured series of interviews was conducted to extract narratives from two owner–managers of medium-scale manufacturer-exporter agro-processing firms in the Philippines. Thematic analysis using deductive reasoning was used to analyse the collected narratives.FindingsThe analysis showed qualitative evidence of a possible intervention of entrepreneurial orientation and dynamic capabilities between the effects of the hostile environment brought about by the pandemic on the firms' export performance. In addition, organisational resilience was observed to possibly moderate the relationship between the firm's entrepreneurial orientation and dynamic capabilities. Resilience takes time (years) to develop;with an entrepreneurial behaviour, a continuous enhancement and acquisition of resources, capabilities, knowledge reflects a robust and adaptive organisation during adversity.Social implicationsThe role of education and research institutions was highlighted in the development of dynamic capabilities of firms. The entrepreneurial resilience, however, reflects the individual characteristic of the owner–managers that manifests in the firm's overall posture toward the overall goal of protecting the industry from its downfall.Originality/valueQualitative evidences composed of direct experiences from key informants served valuable and contextual (Philippine agro-processing industry) validations to the theoretical relationships of variables being analysed.
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Maritime security is facing many challenges due to war conflicts, geopolitics, sanctions, and pandemics. The supply chain for maritime containers has faced considerable obstacles as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerous factors, such as port closures, travel restrictions, and a decreased workforce, have impacted the supply chain. The risk of cargo theft, piracy, and other security events has increased as a result of these difficulties. Therefore, it is essential to look at the risk variables that may affect the security of the marine container supply chain during the pandemic. This research paper highlights those risks through the following three indexes: the likelihood index (LI), severity index (SI), and average risk index (ARI) by analyzing 64 risk factors that were prepared and designed by incorporating the Delphi expert survey technique to prepare a systematic questionnaire. The article addresses worries over the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on international supply networks. The causes of the most recent global shipping industry disruptions and their impact on supply chains have been thoroughly examined. In order to reduce the number of disruptions in global supply chains and lower the direct and indirect costs for consumers, the authors have also mentioned the necessary actions that must be implemented. The results concluded after the analysis pointed to "management activities,” such as human resources or the working environment as having the highest possibility of going wrong, whereas "operation activities” were judged to likely be the fatal ones if the security of maritime containers was ever compromised. The main objective of the study is to evaluate how the COVID-19 epidemic may affect international shipping, particularly container shipping, which is currently the most important link in the world's multimodal land–sea supply chains.
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Bangladesh imports roughly 98% of cotton from abroad to produce fabric or yarn (USDA 2020. Cotton and Products Update. Bangladesh. Also available at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cotton%20and%20Products%20Update_Dhaka_Bangladesh_11-30-2020). The production of textiles in Bangladesh depends on the price of raw material, the demand for garment products in the importing countries, smooth supply chain management, and the domestic supply of cheap garment laborers. The global pandemic of COVID-19 disrupted the supply chain of almost all physical goods and services, including textiles. It caused the price of textiles to fall due to a drop in worldwide demand, and increased the marginal cost of textile production due to supply chain interruptions. This paper shows how the decline in the demand for garments, coupled with an increase in cost, shrinks the producer welfare of textile manufacturing and garment exports of the small producing country, Bangladesh.
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The COVID-19 crisis disrupted the economic life of the entire world and caused various disturbances at different levels in economies and societies. Consequently, the study of the economic impact of the health crisis became necessary to identify the influences that the health crisis had on numerous activities, including economic ones. There are calls for more studies to be conducted about the effects of COVID-19 at different levels so that lessons can be learned. The present paper answers these calls and focuses on the analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on international trade at the country level by investigating two European countries, Romania and Poland. First, it analyzes the macro-level context of the two countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, a regression methodology is employed to measure the impact of the COVID-19 burden (which includes the number of cases and the number of deaths related to COVID-19) on the export and import flows in Romania and Poland. The investigation refers to the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020–2021, which were the most significant. The results of the regression analysis showed that international trade was affected by the COVID-19 burden in the two countries, but the influences were different in the two countries. Exports and imports in Poland were more affected by COVID-19 than exports and imports in Romania. COVID-19 also had a higher impact on the import than the export flows in both countries during the period considered. The negative assumed relationships between COVID-19 burden and international trade flows were not verified in these specific country cases. This paper provides more evidence about the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, contributing to a better understanding of the economic effects of health crises in general.
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Agricultural trade in India has recently experienced significant changes as a result of global crisis. The years 2021 and 2022 saw record exports ($50.2 billion) and imports ($32.4 billion). The resulting surplus of $17.8 billion was significantly lower than the surplus of $27.7 billion in the previous record-breaking export year 2013–14. Covid pandemic and Russia Ukraine war had a positive influence on the record exports from India. But the greater increase in imports has partially offset the remarkable expansion in exports. In this context, an attempt has been made to examine the causes of this pattern in India's export of agricultural produces. The study in this regard is significant because, aside from software services, this is one industry in which India has some comparative advantage. The nation must prioritise a stable trade policy, especially for those goods having highest trade potential.
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The first two months of war alone turned the Russian clock back decades, undoing thirty years of post-Soviet economic gains and reducing the country to an international pariah state. Three decades after the collapse of the Soviet empire, Russians are being dragged back in time to when Soviet citizens lived isolated from the rest of the world, in a bubble of failed ideology and misinformation. That system fell apart under just the kind of autarky and autocracy that Putin hopes to reimpose. Just as the Soviet system collapsed, Putin is also failing Russia, erasing the gains of the postcommunist period in a feckless attempt to rebuild a doomed empire.
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PurposeThis study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.FindingsThe hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors' services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.Originality/valueThe study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.
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Although many firms operate on global digital platforms, small countries and firms also play an essential role at the national level, especially during crises and the slowdown in globalization. This research investigates trade patterns in digital services at the country and firm level and identifies challenges in this area in providing new information and tools to startup mentors and policymakers, who need more evidence for national authorities to develop mentorship and digital programmes. The study also contributes to transaction cost theory, explaining how it is possible to reduce transaction costs. The methodology involves using quantitative and experimental methods, logistic regression for firms and correspondence analysis for countries. The WTO dataset was used to visualise trade in services data and to interpret clusters of digitalised countries. Interestingly, Estonia stands apart from other post-socialist countries in terms of digital services exports, being among smaller countries and hosting the highest concentration of startups per capita. The firmlevel analysis revealed that firms trading in digital services differ from others – being smaller, more focused on exports and more often controlled by non-residents. The study encourages investments in small countries and small firms that trade successfully in digital services.
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The shift to renewable sources of energy has become a critical economic priority in African countries due to energy challenges. However, investors in the development of renewable energy face problems with decision making due to the existence of multiple criteria, such as oil prices and the associated macroeconomic performance. This study aims to analyze the differential effects of international oil prices and other macroeconomic factors on the development of renewable energy in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in Africa. The study uses a panel vector error correction model (P-VECM) to analyze data from five net oil exporters (Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria) and five net oil importers (Kenya, Ethiopia, Congo, Mozambique and South Africa). The study finds that higher oil prices positively affect the development of renewable energy in oil-importing countries by making renewable energy more economically competitive. Economic growth is also identified as a major driver of the development of renewable energy. While high-interest rates negatively affect the development of renewable energy in oil-importing countries, it has positive effects in oil-exporting countries. Exchange rates play a crucial role in the development of renewable energy in both types of countries with a negative effect in oil-exporting countries and a positive effect in oil-importing countries. The findings of this study suggest that policymakers should take a holistic approach to the development of renewable energy that considers the complex interplay of factors, such as oil prices, economic growth, interest rates, and exchange rates.
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Gambier production in Indonesia comes from smallholder plantations. West Sumatra Province is the leading producer of gambier, with a supply of around 80-90 per cent of the total national gambier production. Based on empirical data, when the selling price of gambier exports increases or fluctuates, the selling price of gambier farmers does not increase as much as the price increase at the level of exporter traders. This condition creates marketing inefficiency. The monopoly index (MPI) is one way to measure marketing efficiency based on the performance of each marketing agency. In this regard, the current business environment is also affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. This study analyzed the monopoly level on the Gambier marketing channel in West Sumatra during the covid 19 pandemic. A survey was conducted in this study. The type of data used in this research is cross-section data. Respondents in this study were gambier farmers, gambier traders, and gambier exporters in Padang City, Lima Puluh Kota, and Pesisir Selatan Regency. The analytical method used in this study is using the Lerner index. Based on the analysis of the monopoly index, it is known that exporters have an enormous monopoly index value compared to other marketing institutions, where the collecting trader has a monopoly index of 4.84, inter-regional traders have 2.09, and exporters have 12.81 MDI. These values showed that exporters dominate gambier marketing in West Sumatra Province. The strong position of exporters in determining prices and marketing gambier is also influenced by cooperation with inter-regional traders (IRT).
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PurposeThe goal of the paper is to examine the dynamics between innovation, market structure and trade performance. Firstly, the author first investigates the effects of innovation on trade performance. Secondly, the author then examines how market structure affect trade by classifying industries based on their innovation intensity.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses a detailed level data set of eight OECD countries in a panel of 17 industries from the STAN and ANBERD Database. The author employs both a pooled regression and a two-stage quantile regression analysis. The author first investigates the effects of innovation at the aggregate level, and then the author assesses the effects at the disaggregated or firm level.FindingsThe author finds that at the aggregate level, innovation and market size have a positive and significant effect on competitivity in most of the specifications. However, innovation is negatively associated with trade performance in the case of bilateral trade between Spain and the Netherlands. Also, the sectoral analysis provides evidence that the innovation-trade nexus depends on technological classification. The author shows that: (1) the effect of innovation activity on trade performance economic performance is lower for the high technology and high concentration (HTHC) market compared to the low technology (LT) market;(2) the impact of innovation on economic performance is ambiguous for firms in the high technology and low concentration (HTLC) market.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough the database provides a rich data set on industrial data, it fails to provide innovation output such as patent data which may underestimate the innovation activities of firms that do not have a separate R&D records. In the current context of subdue economic growth these research results have important policy implications. Firstly, the positive impact of innovation on trade performance strengthens its role for sustainable development. The negative coefficient on innovation is an indication that research intensity in some cases has not been able to create a new demand capable to boost economic performance.Practical implicationsThe market classification analysis provides new evidence that innovation in the LT market has the potential to enhance competition. Secondly, market size supports industries that are competing in the international market. Policy makers must therefore put in place incentives to encourage firms to grow in size if they want to remain globally competitive.Social implicationsSustainable development can be supported through investment in research and development in the low technology sector.Originality/valueThe study is the first as far as the author knows, to examine the impact of innovation on bilateral trade performance using industry level data from OECD countries. Secondly, the author complements the existing literature by examining how innovation activities (classified as high technological intensive or low technological intensive) affect trade performance.
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Studiul s-a concentrat pe determinarea politicilor guvernamentale esenţiale si a barierelor comerciale care afectează performanţa exporturilor industriei textile în timpul pandemiei de COVID-19. Acest studiu a analizat influenţa politicilor guvernamentale de export asupra performanţei la export a industriei textile. Acest studiu a comparat, de asemenea, factori din trei industrii textile din Asia de Sud, respectiv Pakistan, India si Bangladesh. Studiul a identificat nouă politici guvernamentale de export esenţiale si bariere comerciale bazate pe vizualizarea organizaţiei industriale (Vizualizarea I/O). A fost utilizat un model de regresie de tip panel pentru a analiza semnificaţia fiecărei politici guvernamentale si barierele comerciale care afectează performanţa exporturilor de produse textile. Rezultatele studiului au arătat că ratele de schimb valutar, costul de export, timpul de export, stabilitatea politică a ţării, calitatea infrastructurii din ţară, libertatea din corupţie, costul de afaceri al terorismului si stabilitatea economică în ţară au un efect semnificativ asupra performanţei la export a industriei. În schimb, taxele pentru desfăşurarea afacerilor au un efect nesemnificativ asupra performanţei la export. Testul de Estimare aparent fără legătură (SUEST) a comparat diferenţele de performanţă la export ale industriilor textile din Pakistan, India si Bangladesh datorate politicilor guvernamentale. Rezultatele au arătat că un nivel mai ridicat de timp pentru export, costul de export si costul pentru desfăsurarea afacerilor terorismului duc la performanţa scăzută la export a industriei textile. În acelasi timp, un nivel mai ridicat al cursurilor de schimb valutar, stabilitatea politică a ţării, calitatea infrastructurii, libertatea din corupţie si stabilitatea economică în ţară duc la performanţe ridicate la export ale industriei textile. Mai mult, taxele pentru desfăsurarea afacerilor au un efect nesemnificativ asupra performanţei la export. Acest studiu este printre puţinele care abordează industria textilă în timpul pandemiei de COVID-19. Din cauza circumstanţelor incerte, va fi greu pentru guvern să identifice factori importanţi care ar putea ajuta exportatorii de textile să supravieţuiască si să se dezvolte în timpul pandemiei de COVID-19. Studiul a identificat politici guvernamentale importante si bariere comerciale care afectează exporturile de textile pe baza unui sprijin teoretic solid si a comparat si a elaborat, de asemenea, importanţa fiecărui factor în trei ţări din Asia de Sud. Acest studiu va ajuta factorii de decizie să-si reconsidere factorii legaţi de export pentru a-si spori exporturile de textile si pentru a-si relansa economia după pandemia de COVID-19.Alternate :The study focused on determining essential government policies and trade barriers affecting the textile industry's export performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study has analysed the effect of government export policies on the export performance of the textile industry. This study has also compared factors among three South Asian textile industries, including Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The study identified nine essential government export policies and trade barriers based on Industrial Organization View (I/O View). A panel regression model was used to analyse the significance of each government policy and trade barrier affecting textile export performance. Results of the study showed that currency exchange rates, the cost to export, time to export, political stability of the country, quality of infrastructure in the country, freedom from corruption, business cost of terrorism and economic stability in the country have a significant effect on export performance of the industry. In contrast, taxes on doing business have an insignificant effect on export performance. The Seemingly Unrelated Estimation (SUEST) test compared the differences in export performance of Pakistani, Indian and Bangladeshi textile industries due to governmen policies. The results showed that a higher level of time to export, cost to export and business cost of terrorism lead to the low export performance of the textile industry. At the same time, a higher level of currency exchange rates, political stability of the country, quality of infrastructure, freedom from corruption and economic stability in-country lead to the high export performance of the textile industry. Further, taxes on doing business have an insignificant effect on export performance. This study is among the few contributing to the textile industry during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to uncertain circumstances, it becomes hard for the government to identify important factors which could help textile exporters to survive and grow during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study has identified important government policies and trade barriers affecting textile exports based on strong theoretical support and has also compared and elaborated on the importance of each factor across three South Asian countries. This study will help policymakers reconsider exportrelated factors to enhance their textile exports and revive their economy after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has created dramatic challenges for public health and textile export trade worldwide. Such abrupt changes are difficult to predict due to the inherently high complexity and nonlinearity, especially with limited data. This article proposes a novel modified discrete grey model with weakening buffer operators, called BODGM (1,1), for forecasting the impact of pandemic-induced uncertainty on the volatility of cotton exports in China under limited samples. First, the Mann-Kendall test examines how pandemic-induced uncertainty affects cotton exports, based on China's monthly cotton export data from June 2014 to August 2022. Second, buffer operators are employed to weaken the nonlinear trends and correct the tentative predictions of the discrete grey model. Then, the BODGM (1,1) model was validated by comparison with four alternative models. The results indicate that the BODGM (1,1) model was particularly promising for identifying mutational fluctuations in cotton exports and outperformed the GM (1,1), DGM (1,1), ARIMA and linear regression models in fitting and prediction accuracy under volatility and limited data. The BODGM (1,1) model forecast results for China showed that cotton export volume was expected to show signs of recovery over the next 12 months. The findings of this study may provide a basis for formulating trade policies to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on export resources and build their resilience to future pandemics.